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#BTCDAILY 25.01.22

So far, so good.


Technicals

We're heavily oversold and MVRV is at the lowest levels since early '20 indicating a strong reversal probability.

The Fib gives a retracement target of $46,938, which would confirm a bullish uptrend.

To claim this price we'll face resistance $40-42k where approximately 1.22m wallets will (according to the Global in/out of the money indicator) flip from loss to profit and represent significant sell pressure.

Prior to that filling the CME gap will also bring us to the weekly pivot at $37,992 which looks like a good short term target for the week ahead.

A breakdown here and we'll test the $30k support and likely trigger a landslide of buy orders.

Fundamentals

The FED's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to meet Wednesday, and any news regarding interest rates could have instant repercussions for both traditional and crypto markets. Expect volatility tomorrow.

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#BTCDAILY 26.01.22

Pretty Impressive V shaped bounce playing out from the dump of the 20th.

Likely the market responding to the growing belief that the FED will hold the rates steady and raise the speed of tapering (promising a rate rise in March of this year) as reported by Bloomberg.

The CME gap has been filled and the weekly pivot hit with price tracking in this rising wedge where price is currently stalled at the 0.5 Rib reversal.

Short term my bet would be a breakdown from the wedge to the pivot at $36.5 before (FED news dependant) continuing this upward course.
If the recently flipped EMASO provides support and we continue up, $39.6 becomes the target. Here well meet overhead resistance and the 0618 fib.

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πŸ“±@signalforall
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#BTCDAILY 28.01.22

Technicals

Subjectively bullish. Theres a nice pennant forming on the 1hr and with price bouncing around the EMA 20&50.

Future pivot at $36.2k is alligning with the ascending trendline so theres a good chance that this plays out. Resistance at $37.6k has held firm through the day however and with the EMA200 close above any breakout is likely going to be short lived.

Fundamentals

Generally negative market sentiment, alts are having a rough time.

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πŸ“±@signalforall
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BTC Chart.png
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#BTCDAILY 04.02.2022

Technicals

Lower highs, and higher lows give us a symetrical triangle and kind of leave us in forecast limbo.

We have a confirmed down trend leading us to the triangle which should in theory continue but mostly in practice its best to confirm the direction of the breakout with, well, the breakout.
We'll anticipate it soon with the declining volume indicating the quiet before the storm.

The RSI is bullish, flipping its 100MA and coming in from oversold and price currentky rests above the EMA50 & 20 that it has hovered around all week, both indicating that we'll break up althugh overhead resistance has held firm all week.

OnChain

Net outflow is showing around $20m BTC moving of the exchange with around 6% of supply currently on exchanges.

Fundamentals

The domiant factor this week has been the Fed, Biden and Powell. The rate hike failing confirmation to break the $30k barrier in the short term has to be bullish and the Microstrategy buys seem to support this

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#BTCDAILY 05.05.2022

Technicals

The 4 hour chart is nicely respecting support and resistance. Following a triple bottom at the $37.6k support price broke up 6% but only briefly reclaimed $40k.

We have a future pivot at $39k sitting at a high volume point so we expect price to retreat down over the day. Closing today above the $39.2k support would bullish, but we may require more confirmation signals to fully convince that the downtrend has been broken.

Fundamentals

The FED confirming the expected 50 point raise seems to have been the catalyst for the BTC bounce.

If the FED announcement helped the price short term, mid term we need to see investors willing to buy BTC above $40k to fully exit the downtrend.
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The Council of Europes Committee of Experts for the Evaluation of Anti-Money Laundering Measures is still campaigning for stricter regulation.

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